The current situation in Thailand is not necessarily due directly just to the political history,  but indirectly because of all the long-standing alliances and divisions between parties, the military and the privy council members who are all trying to position themselves before the elections.

This current round of conflicts started with the 2006 coup that resulted in a government installed by the military. Then Thaksin was elected prime minister. He was the first PM that did anything for the rural poor…a health system and high-interest micro loans to farmers. So the NE rural people (Reds) think he is wonderful.

Then Thaksin was indicted for corruption (bilked the country of a few billion baht of taxes and some other stuff) and fled the country when he was sentenced to 3 years in prison. The government froze about 2/3 of his money and recently returned it to the treasury. Many people think Thaksin would like to return to Thailand, get his money and return to power. He represents new money.

Meanwhile the Yellows (Royalists) and the PAD party, complaining about corruption, held the government house hostage for 193 days in 2008. These folks are supported by old money, many in the Thai diaspora and many in the University system and are called “elites” by the Reds because they feel condescended and disrespected especially by the privileged in Bangkok (and local government house leaders I might add because they line their pockets and wield power just like the people in Bangkok.

When the police tried to dislodge the Yellows with grenades and tear gas they went to the airports (my Yellow friend says) for protection. Of course they must have known the government would shut down the airports then. This resulted in the current government with the election of the current Prime Minister by a coalition of parties in the Parliament with general elections scheduled for this fall.

The Reds, meanshile had been holding “Democracy Workshops” all over Thailand and convinced the people that the interim government wasn’t elected so therefore Thailand wasn’t practicing democracy. IMO an election does not a democracy make in Thailand anyway because there is no division of powers between the courts, the Parliament and the Prime Minister…indeed there is political and economic collusion at every level.

So it is in the political interest of Thaksin and his proxy party to dismantle the government (dissolve the parliament now and have elections) now instead of waiting until the scheduled elections in the fall. There are reasons for this. One is that the military still wields a great amount of political power in Thailand. If the elections were now, it means that the new Military General that is scheduled to replace the current one would be appointed by a new Prime Minister (Thaksin or his stand-in) whose party would certainly be elected. However, the current Prime Minister and his party (who would certainly lose an election) want to stay in power long enough to appoint the new head of the military.

So. Thaksin is paying 500 to 1000 for each rural Red to come to paralyze the city of Bangkok and force Abhisit (current Prime Minister) to step down and dissolve the parliament and have elections now. The timing of elections is part of what the negotiations were about that failed. Abhisit is backed by a coalition of parties opposed to Thaksin and they are holding firm.

When the Reds held a press conference at the Foreign Correspondent’s Club of Thailand just before the rally started, they insisted that the rally would be peaceful. No weapons. The journalists didn’t buy it. They also wanted to know who was paying the Reds. Presenters answered that most of the demonstrators were volunteers. The journalists didn’t buy this either. (Incidentally, one of the four Red presenters was introduced as the “accountant.”

The problem came when weapons appeared. Many weapons were stolen from a military barracks before the rally started…probably with help because some in the military and 70% of the police are Red sympathizers. For months before the rally started bombs were going off all over Thailand.

Everyone is wondering who the “men in black” were that were seen April 10 shooting with high powered rifles when 27 people died including 4 military officers. Don’t believe the press when they portray the Reds as having only sling shots. They were armed with rocket propelled grenades and other weapons. Some people think this is part of a battle between military factions underneath the Red Rally. Recently, one demoted general, Sae Deang, purported to be behind the Red Shirts, was assassinated. Some are speculating that it was vengeance for the killing of several military officers on April 10.

This is the first time I have said this publicly, but IMO I think the meeting between Thaksin and Hun Sen (no love lost between Cambodia and Thailand) resulted in hired Cambodian mercenaries. It would make sense because Thai blood runs thick and it seems unnatural for Thais to be killing Thais. JMO.

So for 6 weeks the Red leaders had been using volatile rhetoric to stir up the Red demonstrators at the main stage…backed by very loud DJ music. Reds kept pouring in from up-country and the “camp” strethed all the way from the main rally site among all the malls and 5 star hotels to the business district of Silom. There were huge screens about every 50 yards so people camping in the street could see and hear what was going on on the main stage. Red Guards dressed in black guarded the demonstrators and some were seen carrying weapons. ID cards were issued and people searched before entering the site. Foreigners (witnesses) were welcomed and treated well. When it looked like the police were about to close in they exchanged their red shirts for multi-colored ones to hinder identification.

Another Thailand watcher characterizes the rally demonstrators this way:

Some of the foreign press are painting the endgame as the Alamo, but it is not. It is a lot closer to Jonestown or Waco.

Like those latter two cases, a highly charismatic leader figure (in our case operating from a distance, shopping in Paris while his minions sweat in the 94°weather) has taken an inspirational idea: in one case Christianity, in the other democracy, and reinvented it so that mainstream Christians, or real democrats, can no longer recognize it. The followers are trapped. There is a siege mentality and information coming from outside is screened so that those trapped believe they will be killed if they try to leave. Women and children are being told that they are in danger if they fall into the hands of the government, and to distrust the medics and NGOs waiting to help them. There are outraged pronouncements that they’re not in fact using the children as human shields, but that the parents brought them willingly to “entertain and thrill” them. There is mounting paranoia coupled with delusions of grandeur, so that the little red kingdom feels it has the right to summon the United Nations, just like any other sovereign state. The reporters in Rajprasong who are attached to the red community are as susceptible to this variant of the Stockholm syndrome as anyone else.

The international press must separate out the very real problems that the rural areas of Thailand face, which will take decades to fix, from the fact that a mob is rampaging through Bangkok, burning, looting, and firing grenades, threatening in the name of democracy to destroy what democracy yet remains in this country.

Then talks failed and the Red leaders announced they were giving themselves up (probably handed a deal by the govt) because if terrorism carries a death sentence.  The demonstrators responded with tears and jeers. Before the leaders left, the main speaker called for Bangkok to be burned. (you can see video of this with English subtitles on my blog here.  It is interesting, however, that 83 Yellows were convicted of terrorism for shutting down the airports in 2008 but most of them are free today.  Can you imagine world headlines stating that Thailand hung 83 terrorists?

Meanwhile, CRES, the Thai department in charge of security, has gone on live TV to defend why the police needed to use live ammo.  They showed caches of arms and firebombs retrieved from the rally site. But it may not be over yet. Regrouping reds have announced another Bangkok rally in June.

This is just a skeleton outline  My info has come from Thai friends and following articles and tweets since November but also following events since the coup in 2006 that I witnessed in Bangkok in 2006.