Political Options For Thailand?

Posted on by Laughingnomad

Simon Montlake has an article in the Christian Science Monitor speculating on the political future now that the rally is over. It doesn’t bode well for Thailand because neither the the Yellows (PAD Party) or the Reds (Thaksin) will accept the validity of a government by the other. This is how he ends the piece:

The red shirts, known as the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), called for snap elections in Thailand, which has been roiled by political turmoil since 2006. An election is likely to return a government allied to Mr. Thaksin, the former premier.

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva offered to dissolve parliament in late September, paving the way for a November election. But UDD leaders rejected the proposal, part of a reconciliation package. Mr. Abhisit, who must call elections by December 2011, hasn’t said if he would stick to this timetable after ordering the crackdown.

Duncan McCargo, an expert on Thailand at the University of Leeds, in England, says it is hard to imagine a quick return to parliamentary politics after the recent upheaval. But he warns that early elections may not end the crisis, as rival “yellow-shirt” protesters oppose any restoration of Thaksin’s influence.

“The big fear is that whoever wins the election will face some repetition of the 2008-2010 protest cycle, since neither red shirts nor yellow shirts will accept the legitimacy of the other’s position,” he writes in an e-mail.

Security officials say the string of arson attacks was organized and that black-clad gunmen had stopped firefighters from tackling at least one blaze. In some attacks, looters also cleared out stores and bank ATMs.

Last month, Nattawut Saikua, a UDD leader, encouraged poor protesters to loot malls in the event of a crackdown. “When we are panicked, we will smash glass windows of these luxurious shopping malls and run amok inside,” he said, according to Human Rights Watch.

Kung, the protester at the temple, said he didn’t take part in any looting but had little sympathy for store owners. “People don’t have money. Do you understand?”

Bangkok Calming

Posted on by Laughingnomad

 Well, the most you could say about this recent conflict in Thailand is that even if the rancor remains for decades, there is a whole generation that is now politicized.  The Reds from up-country have undergone a process known here as ta sawang, or a “brightening of the eyes” — an awakening, a realization of a truth they had not recognized.  Unfortunately their eyes followed Thaksin who recognized them as a huge voting block.

But in the northeast the rage goes on. The nation reported this morning that Education Minister Chinnaworn Boonyakiart on Friday formed two panels, one in charge of fact-finding related to the arson attacks of three schools in the Northeast and another responsible for assessing the damage.

During the first day of curfew on Wednesday, two arson attacks were reported in Nong Khai and Yasothorn.

Ban Tha Chiang Krua School in Nong Khai’s Seka district was burned down. The arson happened at Ban Yang Krue Nong Thom School in Yasothorn’s Muang district.

During Thursday’s curfew, Ban Wang Keng School was torched at Khon Kaen’s Nam Phong district.

Me In Las Vegas

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After a week in Hong Kong,  just in time to avoid the worst of the burning of Bangkok just up the road from Sukhumvit 20 where I was staying, I flew to Portland Oregon with a transfer in San Francisco on my favorite airline…Cathay Pacific.  Travel time from Hong Kong to the west coast is much shorter (about 10 hours) than a flight from Bangkok with a long layover in Taiwan or Seoul (14-18 hours).

But after 8 months in Asia, the jet lag and culture shock really hit me hard, as usual, flying to the western hemisphere from the east.  In short feeling like I have the flu on top of disorientation, lack of short-term memory (where are my glasses now…and those damn keys…and my phone!) and feeling scattered, very fatigued and strange.  So I holed up in a hotel for a week in Salem…not wanting to inflict myself on my friends…and where I could curl up on a cloud-soft mattress like a baby.

But then, beginning to feel somewhat normal again and stuck in a “cell”  the weather turned from rain to sun and I really wanted out of the hotel. And didn’t appreciate US CNN which is incredibly inferior to International CNN!  I missed the superior BBC, Aljazeera and Russia Today that I could get in Bangkok so I just relied on my computer on free wireless internet which was better than TV anyway. Then a very generous friend offered to have me stay with her and her husband.  This couple had spent a few years in Thailand in the Peace Corps in the 70’s, so it was wonderful to have someone to trade information and debrief the chaos in Bangkok with…especially since they had been following the web videos, articles, forums and tweets like I had been.  Thank you so much Judy and Bob! I hope someday I can be as generous with you!

So now, after almost missing my plane because of bumper to bumper traffic from Salem to Portland, I am in Las Vegas with weather in the 80’s and enjoying my son Greg and his new toddler, Val, a very sweet yellow labrador 18 month old puppy.  We have plans for a Bar B Q with his friends and a Cirque du Seleil show based on Elvis. If it is as good as the one based on the Beatles during my last visit to LV, it will be a fine evening. Greg is at work. Think I’ll curl up and take a nap.

Burning Of Bangkok

Posted on by Laughingnomad

Just about eight minutes after the Red Shirt leaders gave their last speech on the main rally stage to jeers and tears, just before they gave themselves up to police who were closing in, flames and black smoke from burning tires has nearly covered 20 sites of the city for the last three days.  In the clash, protestors used everything from rocket propelled hand grenades, petrol bombs,  and molotov cocktails to slingshots and rocks and the military used hi-powered rifles, tear gas and tanks, although the BBC took video of the Reds using rifles too.  On wednesday, several people were killed…including both Red Shirts and at least one soldier. Anger at what was perceived as a biased media resulted in reporters being targeted and an Italian photographer dead. Hundreds were wounded including 3 other reporters.

Central World, the second largest shopping mall in Asia was burned out, the old Siam Theater, a cultural icon, was burned among about 3 dozen buildings, people being harbored in a wat were attacked, a TV station was attacked with staff having to be airlifted out by helicoptors, soldiers wounded, almost the entire country came under Emergency Rule and the government is enforcing a 9pm to 5am curfew…much to the consternation of young backpackers.  The MRT subway and BTS skytrain has stopped until further notice. The battle has spread to the provinces with at least two provincial halls being burned. So much for  peaceful Thai farmers.  The following Washington Post story with links to photos depict the disaster.

Thai military breaks up red-shirt protests in Bangkok

 

Story: Thai soldiers assault ‘red shirt’ encampment in Bangkok

The military launched an offensive to evict anti-government protesters from central Bangkok, a move that left parts of the city near anarchy.

 

Unrest in Thailand

Thailand has a long history of political unrest and protests. View a graphic showing the relationship between pro- and anti-government demonstrators over the last four years.

Graphic

 

Protest in Bangkok

View a graphic that chronicles the protest in Bangkok, Thailand.

Red Shirt Leaders Surrender

Posted on by Laughingnomad

Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, May 19, 2010; 2:06 PM

BANGKOK — Thai soldiers launched an assault Wednesday against “red shirt” protesters in a military operation that forced anti-government protest leaders to surrender but left parts of Bangkok in the grip of near-anarchy.

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Enraged by the offensive, protesters set fire to Thailand’s stock exchange and Southeast Asia’s second-biggest shopping mall, looted luxury boutiques and fired grenades and guns in areas previously untouched by the mayhem. Disorder spread to at least seven provinces, and protesters set fire to town halls in three northern cities.

In an effort to contain the violence, the government imposed an overnight curfew on Bangkok and extended it to 21 provinces. It also banned coverage of the unrest on local television channels, which limited themselves to government announcements.

At least five protesters and an Italian freelance news photographer were reported killed in Wednesday’s clashes, and about 60 other people were wounded. But there were indications that the death toll could rise. The Associated Press quoted witnesses as saying at least six more bodies were recovered in the capital’s protest zone after the military assault.

Speaking on television, embattled Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said he was “confident and determined to end the problems and return the country to peace and order once again.”

But exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose followers formed the red shirt movement, warned that military attacks on the protesters could spawn mass discontent and lead to guerrilla warfare, Reuters news agency reported. “There is a theory saying a military crackdown can spread resentment, and these resentful people will become guerrillas,” the agency quoted Thaksin as saying.

In an offensive launched at daybreak after days of escalating confrontation, armored vehicles smashed through barricades made of sharpened bamboo poles and rubber tires while heavily armed troops raced deep into territory occupied for more than a month by protesters.

As the military advanced toward the center of the fortified encampment, protest leader Jatuporn Prompan announced that he and other “core leaders” would turn themselves in to police. He pleaded with followers to leave the area to avoid further bloodshed.

“We have no more words to speak because all your hearts are already far beyond death,” Jatuporn said. “Today we will stop the death but we will not stop fighting. People keep dying; let’s stop the death together.”

An angry mob ignored the appeal for an orderly retreat and set fire to parts of Central World Plaza, an upscale nearby shopping mall, under the gaze of fashion models pictured on billboards advertising luxury clothing. Thick smoke billowed from the shopping center and also from Siam Theatre — a popular movie house — a government-owned bank and other buildings. Rioters set fire to the Thai stock exchange, which had closed early because of the violence. Some protesters began setting up new barricades and fought running battles with soldiers.

The government said it had the situation under control but also declared that a curfew would go into effect at 8 p.m. and continue until 6 a.m. Dazed tourists struggled to get back to their hotels through military checkpoints amid sporadic rounds of gunfire. Electricity went off in residential areas far from the protest zone.

There also were reports of unrest elsewhere in Thailand, a close military ally of the United States and popular tourist destination that touts itself as the “land of smiles.”

An angry mob ignored the appeal for an orderly retreat and set fire to parts of Central World, an upscale nearby shopping mall, under the gaze of fashion models pictured on billboards advertising luxury clothing. Thick smoke billowed from the shopping center and from the Siam Theatre — a popular movie house — as well as a government-owned bank and other buildings. Rioters set fire to the Thai stock exchange, which had closed early because of the violence. Some protesters began setting up new barricades and fought running battles with soldiers.

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The military eventually halted its advance on the center of the protest zone, saying it wanted to let people leave. The government said it had the situation under control but also declared that a curfew would go into effect Thursday. Dazed tourists struggled to get back to their hotels through military checkpoints amid sporadic rounds of gunfire. Electricity went off in residential areas far from the protest zone.

There also were reports of unrest elsewhere in Thailand, a popular tourist destination that touts itself as the “land of smiles.”

Most of the trouble outside Bangkok occurred in northern regions, the main base of support for Thaksin, a billionaire former police officer who wants to return to Thailand and to power. In Khon Kaen, a major city, protesters torched the town hall. In another big northern city, Ubon Ratchathani, about 1,000 red-shirt sympathizers set fire to city hall, gutting it, a resident said.

Such incidents show that far from settling Thailand’s deep political divisions, Wednesday’s assault threatened to polarize the country further. The protesters first gathered in central Bangkok to try to force early elections to replace the government, which was chosen by parliament, not a popular vote. It took power from a government loyal to Thaksin, who was overthrown in a military coup in 2006. What began as a peaceful movement for change, however, became increasingly unruly as hard-line militants took up arms and protest leaders lost control of their own cause.

Although the government clearly won the battle this week, it now faces the more difficult task of winning what will probably be a long campaign to restore enduring calm and to prevent pockets of resistance coalescing into a threat that could jeopardize the entire country’s stability.

In Bangkok on Wednesday, trouble spread beyond the “red zone” into Sukhumvit, a main thoroughfare usually clogged with foreign tourists. At Asoke, a major hub, red-shirt sympathizers set fire to tires outside a police station and blocked the street with buses. A crowd of bystanders cheered. A fire truck was chased away, leaving the fires to rage unchecked. They were later put out, and the crowd dispersed.

Jeremy King, a private fund manager and longtime British resident of Bangkok, said the onlookers’ cheers signaled a surprising degree of “grass-roots support for the red shirts.” But he was also surprised, he said, by “how quickly the crowd evaporated . . . and the fires were put out when the order came to stand down.”

Special correspondent Nate Thayer in Bangkok and staff writer John Pomfret in Washington contributed to this report.

Two Faces Of The Thai Uprising

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Thaksin’s vendetta is wrecking the country
By Sopon Onkgara
The Nation

BANGKOK: — After a few days of armed skirmishes between rioters, terrorists and government troops in areas around Rajprasong, an end to the trouble remains elusive, despite the deadline given for the red shirts to disperse by 3pm yesterday afternoon.

Some more military action could ensue now that the crowd in front of the stage is thinning out. Only a few thousand are left to serve as shields for the red-shirt ringleaders, who have vowed to fight to the end.

But that sounds like empty bravado. Several have already left the stage for safety, especially the key leader Veera Musigapong, who opted out as if knowing that further persistence would lead to an unpleasant end.

It has been proven beyond any doubt that the red shirts, who serve as the political wing for the campaign to oust the government by Thaksin Shinawatra, have comrades in arms in the true sense of the word. They periodically fire grenades at troops and other targets during the running battles.

The number of grenades at their disposal has been amazing. The M-79 grenade launchers have become a key weapon of the unidentified, hooded men who look mean and lethal. The troops have not been able to capture any of them, either dead or alive. Only video clips of their actions have been shown.

The red-shirt leaders have not denied that they are allies of those forces. Since the beginning of the rally, they have elevated their campaign from a claim of peaceful protest and ahimsa to harassment and terror for Bangkok residents.

Now, they have realised that the punishment they deserve for their crimes is too serious for them to surrender to the authorities. Their options remain the same – flee, go to jail, or be killed if they resist the final crackdown.

Thaksin Shinawatra no longer remains silent, though he does not show himself for public view. Through messages and tapes, he tries to drag international organisations, including the UN, into participating in truce talks despite his status as a fugitive criminal fleeing a two-year jail term.

His whereabouts and the condition of his health remain vague, despite reports that he has been battling prostate cancer. Always on the move to avoid being tracked by the Thai authorities, Thaksin has become an international fugitive and is always causing trouble to the Abhisit government through his cronies in and outside the House.

The riots at various spots in Bangkok have claimed more than 30 lives. They include thugs, rioters and innocent by-standers. Among the casualties are foreigners and a medic who were shot by unidentified gunmen.

It is not a civil war, but the government is trying to suppress rioting, store looting, armed attacks and terrorism. Sporadic gunfire and grenade explosions are heard around the battle zones. Bangkok is virtually at war with Thaksin, who is at the core of the crisis.

His vendetta, financed by billions of baht paid to red-shirt protesters and armed men, is taking a heavy toll on the country’s political, economic and social structure.

No matter how the crisis ends, the country will not be the same. It will be ridden with deep-seated division and conflict, even with or without Thaksin being around.

After two months of tolerating illegal rallies and terror, the government only began to take real action in the past few days with the blockade of Rajprasong to deprive the crowd of sufficient food and support. Persuasion will cut down the size of the crowd to just a few thousand before a further crackdown, if the government decides that such action becomes inevitable.

A bold move was taken on Sunday when the government prevented financial transactions by 106 corporate entities and individuals with Thaksin connections. Starting right from Thaksin’s ex-wife and his siblings, the list includes all sorts of business and political cronies, as well as classmates from his days in the pre-cadet school.

The big names will not be allowed to engage in financial activities, and the measures are designed to cut funding for the rallies and mobilisation of supporters from upcountry.

The final death toll and number of injuries will depend on what actions are taken to flush out red shirts from their rally sites. The ultimate cost will be high in financial terms as well as human tragedy.

By now, Thailand and the world knows that Thaksin has unlimited potential to destabilise his homeland, from which his family has amassed wealth through political power and corruption.

One man like Thaksin is more than enough in the long history of this country.

And then there are the Red Shirts themselves. Supporting Thaksin because he handed out bits of help that no other Prime Minister had before him…small high-interest loans and a health program.  But the up-country folk couldn’t see past that to the man who bilked the country of a couple of billion dollars in taxes, was convicted of corruption and who fled the country rather than serve a 3 year sentence. They just turned their heads like many Thais do.  And now they are faced with the consequences of what the man who many call “Toxin” wrought.  But it seems out of his control now.

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Hong Kong! Relief from Heat And Chaos of Bangkok

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So the Reds are keeping up the pressure in Bangkok. My yellow shirt friend didn’t want me to take a taxi to the airport yesterday for a flight to Hong Kong (taxis being almost all Red because most of them are up-country folks too) so he picked me up at my hotel at 4am. Heading down Asoke to the expressway, we passed a dozen military trucks with army soldiers so the Reds apparently weren’t able to detain ALL the troops trying to get to the city at checkpoints they had set up in four provinces.

Boy, was I one happy camper yesterday when I stepped off the plane to spend a week with my son! It’s overcast and coolish and I said to Josh that the weather was just fine when he lamented no sun. So I’m out on the veranda of his tiny hi-rise apartment, in a jungle of hi-rise apartments overlooking the bay, with morning coffee and my computer on his WiFi reading the latest on the Red Shirt rally in Bangkok and of course keeping up with my adventuring Couchsurfing friends on the internet.

As before, I took the hi-speed train from the airport to the island but this time I wasn’t paying attention and got off at Kowloon…silly me! So had to wait for the next train to get back on for the final stop to the Hong Kong station.  You’d think after all this time traveling I’d finally get it right! While waiting I get a call on my Thai phone…surprised that the Thai sim card was still working in Hong Kong… from Luk, son Doug’s Thai wife on the island of Koh Samui in Thailand…mom, you ok?

After a little nappy we made a grocery stop…of course my son being a chef there wasn’t a thing in his refrigerator except two small containers of expired milk…and then met Cantonese girlfriend Polly for some off the beaten track sushi.  “Now we go for pizza,” Polly says with a sly smile…parroting an inside joke between her and Josh when when they overeat as usual.  Hmmm.  Wonder where we will eat tonight…eating of course is what I mostly do with my main man while in Hong Kong. 🙂

View of Hong Kong from Josh’s penthouse restaurant

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The Yellow (now Multi-Color) Side

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The “Royalists” (PAD Party), also called the “Yellow Shirts,” supports the King of Thailand and is in opposition to the mostly up-country “Red Shirt” farmers who support ex-prime minister Thaksin who has been indicted for corruption and is in exile. The “Reds” charge “the Bangkok elites” with being condescending and derisive and too fond of old money and privilege.

But ironically no one is more representative of the elites than Thaksin’s mafia which has a virtual stranglehold of Bangkok’s poor where the vendors have to pay tribute even to get a business started. But of course Thaksin, when he was in power, bought off the upcountry Reds with small loans that saved their rice crops and building clinics many of which stand empty because of the lack of equipment and trained staff. So now Thaksin has a nice constituency that sent over 300,000 farmers to camp out in the business district of Bangkok. Divide and conquer through class division, I say. Americans should recognize it.

The militant arm of the Yellow Shirts held the Government House hostage for 193 days in 2008 when it fled the military grenades and tear gas to hide out at the airport. It resulted, of course, in the airport being shut down by the government…devastating to tourism and disrupting air travel all over the world.  Eighty-three protestors were convicted of treason which carries a death penalty but as usual no sentences have been handed out. But it also led to a coup against the then Democrat Party Prime Minister Abhisit. Confusing at the best.

The battle against corruption is occurring these days on the internet social sites like Facebook and blogs instead of on the streets. Except for a big strategy meeting in April at Rangsit University, sponsored by the University President, the “Yellow Shirts have been strangely quiet during the Red Rally but one Yellow Shirt friend told me: “they are just finishing what we started.”

Thaksin is part of the new monied class and is funding the Red protest, most people think,  to position a return to Thailand to recover the money that was confiscated by the government after he was convicted for fraud and sentenced for 3 years in jail and also to possibly run for Prime Minister again. A megalomaniac, IMO.  The Yellows support the current Prime Minister (Phua Thai Party) that came into power as a result of the Yellow protest. So you could easily say it’s old money and power against new money and power and class warfare that is driving the political division.

YouTube is full of propaganda videos against the Reds and the corrupt Thaksin and I am getting them in emails from Bangkok Thai friends. But they reflect the feeling of a lot of middle class Thai people…a fact.